Peer-Reviewed Publications
Sanctions, Countersanctions, and Power: When and How International Organizations De-Escalate Geoeconomic Conflict. International Interactions, 2026.
A “conveyor belt” from international standards to stronger domestic regulation? Evidence from the international political economy of net zero governance. Regulation & Governance, 2026. With Thomas Hale, Emma Lecavalier, Bhavya Gupta, and Thom Wetzer.
Carrots as Sticks: How Effective Are Foreign Aid Suspensions and Economic Sanctions? International Studies Quarterly, 2024.
The Power of the “Weak” and International Organizations. Review of International Organizations, 2024. With Duncan Snidal, Thomas Hale, Emily Jones, and Karolina Milewicz.
Book Manuscript
Varieties of Chokepoints: The Sources of Geoeconomic Power. Full manuscript drafted.
The book answers the question nearly every government is now asking: which of our economic ties could be used against us, and which can we use? Rival economies trade thousands of products, and most of these exchanges could be replaced at manageable cost if relations soured. A few could not. These are chokepoints: economic exchanges without good alternatives, where interdependence turns into power for one side and vulnerability for the other.
The book distinguishes four varieties of chokepoints — platforms, know-how, fixed capital, and market access — and traces each through a lifecycle of emergence, activation, and adjustment. A chokepoint’s type reveals who can wield it, who is exposed, and how, if at all, it can be escaped. The argument runs through the defining cases of contemporary geoeconomics, from financial sanctions on Russia and export controls on advanced AI chips to China’s dominance in critical minerals, and shows how states can govern chokepoints without undermining the openness on which prosperity depends.
Working Papers
The Cocooning Effect of US Dependence: How Can Europe Renew Its Partnerships? With Ngaire Woods. Under review.
The Target Strikes Back: When and How China and Russia Adopt Economic (Counter)Sanctions. With Linda Liu.
Comparative Analysis of National Export Control Regimes. With Christina Davis, Katniss Li, and Yeling Tan.
Data
Oxford Climate Policy Monitor. With Bhavya Gupta, Thomas Hale, Emma Lecavalier, and Thom Wetzer. Public database of net-zero regulations across 37 jurisdictions.
Dataset on 200+ Cases of Chinese and Russian Economic Sanctions. With Linda Liu. Dataset complete; paper in progress.
Claas Mertens 